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近期钢材坯料和期货价格同涨,但未能带动现货价格,期现价差缩减至平水。冬储行情令钢材社会库存大幅上涨,部分现货企业对供给侧改革预期较为乐观,积极囤货。春节将近,流通贸易商基本表现平稳,节前螺纹行情将受到需求淡季的影响,加上前期期货贴水缩减,期货价格恐将进一步下跌。
Recent steel billet and futures prices rose, but failed to drive spot prices, the current price difference reduced to flat water. Winter market make steel inventories rose sharply, part of the spot enterprises are more optimistic about the expected supply side reforms, the active stockpile. Spring Festival approaching, the circulation of traders basically stable performance, the market will be affected by the pre holiday market demand off-season, coupled with pre futures discount reduction, futures prices will further decline.
近期供给侧改革依然是影响市场供给的主要驱动力。发改委与工信部联合发布《关于运用价格手段促进钢铁行业供给侧结构性改革有关事项的通知》,通知显示淘汰类由每千瓦时加价0.3元提高至每千瓦时加价0.5元;限制类继续维持每千瓦时加价0.1元;未按期完成化解过剩产能实施方案中,有化解任务的钢铁企业电价参照淘汰类每千瓦时加价0.5元执行。本轮差别化电价调整将推高落后产能的生产成本,加速落后产能的淘汰。

济钢一级代理Recent supply side reform is still the main driving force affecting the market supply. Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of industry jointly issued the "notice" on the promotion of matters related to the steel industry supply side structural reform by means of price, notice out of class by 0.3 yuan per kilowatt hour increase to 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase; restrictions continue to increase 0.1 yuan per kilowatt hour; fails to complete the implementation plan to resolve the overcapacity in the iron and steel enterprises have to resolve the price reference task out of class 0.5 yuan per kilowatt hour increase execution. The current round of differential tariff adjustment will push up production costs of backward production capacity, and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.
据统计,2016年12月下旬重点钢企粗钢日均产量166.38万吨,环比上一旬增加0.82万吨,增幅0.49%。据此估算,2017年1月上旬全国粗钢日均产量约为218万吨,旬环比增加0.72万吨,增幅0.33%。节前钢铁产量进一步减产动力不足,据我的钢铁网监测,近期全国163家钢厂高炉产能利用率80.66%,较前期环比略增0.31%,163家钢厂高炉开工率72.38%,环比增0.14%,同比基本持平,降幅有限。钢厂盈利率增至71.17%,环比继续增加,主要源于近期炉料现货价格并未跟随钢价上涨,加上“地条钢清理”利好消息的刺激,钢材现货价格略有走高。
According to statistics, in late December 2016, key steel enterprises average daily output of 1 million 663 thousand and 800 tons of steel, an increase of 8 thousand and 200 tons over the previous month, an increase of 0.49%. According to this estimate, the average daily output of crude steel in China was about 2 million 180 thousand tons in January 2017 and 7 thousand and 200 tons in the past ten months, an increase of 0.33%. Before the steel production further cuts the power shortage, according to my steel net monitoring, the recent national steel 163 blast furnace production capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, compared with the previous a slight increase of 0.31% QoQ, 163 steel blast furnace operating rate of 72.38%, an increase of 0.14%, an essentially flat, limited decline. Mills profit rate increased to 71.17%, continued to increase, mainly due to the recent spot prices did not follow the burden of rising steel prices, coupled with the "clean steel" good news, spot steel prices slightly higher.
炉料方面,铁矿石港口库存再创历史新高,受到国际矿商出口高峰以及雾霾天气导致华北、华东地区疏港量下滑,截至1月13日,全国41个港口铁矿石库存环比上涨167万吨至11899万吨。目前多数钢厂铁矿石库存水平较高,节前采购意愿一般。焦炭方面,钢厂库存累积、产量下滑导致需求走弱,加上焦煤供给上升,现货价格继续下调。
Charge, iron ore port stocks hit a record high, by the international miners and the haze weather caused the peak export volume in North China and East China decline, as of January 13th, the 41 iron ore port stocks rose 1 million 670 thousand to 118 million 990 thousand tons. At present, the majority of steel mills, iron ore inventory levels higher, general willingness to purchase before the holiday. Coke, steel stocks accumulated, production decline led to weaker demand, coupled with coking coal supply rise, spot prices continue to decline.
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Our company will abide by the principle of commercial integrity and equality and mutual benefit, and provide the best service for our customers, and create more perfect works. We are willing to work together with friends from all walks of life to create prosperity.

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